Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that divided the nation and caused turmoil, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the political, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in academia but scarcely any politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author endorses unification or the status quo. They writes two articles that seek objectivity in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and social figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates cover flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said the writer. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the notion that there could be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they prefer unification but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent official who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified points, he stated. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will eventually lose but both parties has possesses valuable insights to learn from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
